NRF Projects Record $1.013 Trillion Holiday Season for 2026

The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday season sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2026 to rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, according to Home Furnishings News. Roughly half of that gain is expected to come from consumer spending growth. The NRF's chief economist, Mark Mathews, said higher-income households are spending more robustly than lower-income households, and that the divide is widening. The forecast also projects core goods inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025.

What it means for you

• Retailers: The projected spending gap between income groups may affect which price points and categories perform best, so it is worth reviewing your customer mix and assortment.
• Reps: Higher-income buyers may be the more active segment this season, so pitching premium lines to accounts serving that customer could be worthwhile.
• Manufacturers: Projected core goods inflation of 2.6% may affect input and pricing decisions, and it could be useful to review cost assumptions for the season.
• Vendors: Holiday demand is forecast to grow, but the uneven spending pattern may mean planning for different demand levels across customer segments.